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Tennis

Katie Swan - Naomi Osaka: our prediction

04/01/2026•05:20

#145

Katie Swan

0:2

6•7

1•6

Finished

Naomi Osaka

Katie Swan vs Naomi Osaka Preview — United Cup, Group E

Naomi Osaka, former world number one and four-time Grand Slam champion, faces Katie Swan, a British player ranked much lower. Osaka is the clear favorite, showing solid form (60% win rate in last 10 matches) compared to only 10% for Swan. The match is part of the United Cup (hard, outdoor).

Our Katie Swan vs Naomi Osaka predictions

Naomi Osaka to Win

Osaka is the undisputed favorite. Her win statistics (60% in last 10 matches) and her experience at the highest level strongly contrast with Swan's difficult form (10% wins). No known injury alert contradicts this superiority.

1.1

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets

Osaka has a 60% win rate in 2 sets when she is the favorite. Swan, struggling, has lost 90% of her recent matches. The probability of a quick match in 2 sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-4) is high, which corresponds to 'Under 2.5 sets'.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

If Osaka dominates in 2 sets as expected, the total number of games should remain low. Scores like 6-3, 6-4 (19 games) or 6-2, 6-3 (17 games) are likely. However, a tight set could push the total over 22.5, hence medium confidence.

1.8

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Katie Swan vs Naomi Osaka

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Katie Swan vs Naomi Osaka Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Katie Swan	Naomi Osaka
Win \| Lose	1 9	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	22%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	75%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	16%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%