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Thanasi Kokkinakis - Valentin Vacherot: our prediction

14/01/2026•09:00

#68

Thanasi Kokkinakis

0:0

Finished

#20

Valentin Vacherot

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Valentin Vacherot Preview — Adelaide International

First-round match at the Adelaide International between Australian Thanasi Kokkinakis and Monegasque Valentin Vacherot. Vacherot is the bookmakers' favorite, but Kokkinakis, the home player, has superior experience. Recent statistics show both players are in form, with a high win percentage. The match could be tight, with a high probability of exceeding 22.5 games.

Our Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Valentin Vacherot predictions

Over 22.5 games in the match

Statistics show both players are competitive. Kokkinakis, as an outsider, wins at least one set in 90% of cases. Vacherot, the favorite, loses one set in 50% of cases. These trends, combined with the recent form of both players (80% and 70% wins), suggest a tight match, likely going to three sets, easily exceeding the 22.5 games mark.

1.78

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Analysis of the percentage of 3-set matches (outside Majors) is revealing: Kokkinakis plays 50% of his matches in 3 sets, Vacherot 40%. Furthermore, when Kokkinakis is the outsider, this percentage rises to 70%. Given Vacherot's favorite status (odds 1.41) and Kokkinakis's tendency to be very competitive, the probability of a three-set match is high.

2.3

Confidence

High

Victory for Valentin Vacherot

Vacherot is the logical favorite (odds 1.41). He shows solid form with 70% wins in his last 10 matches and an 80% win rate when favored. However, Kokkinakis is a dangerous opponent, especially at home, with 80% recent wins and a great ability to win sets as an outsider (90%). Vacherot's victory is likely but won't be easy, justifying medium confidence.

1.44

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Valentin Vacherot

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Valentin Vacherot Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Thanasi Kokkinakis	Valentin Vacherot
Win \| Lose	8 2	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	100%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	100%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	80%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	57%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	100%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	71%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%