Lin Zhu - Marina Stakusic: our prediction

Stakusic is the designated favorite (odds 1.70). Her statistics as a favorite are solid: 70% wins in her last 10 matches in that role. Her recent form (6W/4L) is slightly better than Zhu's (5W/5L). In non-Grand Slam matches, she wins 90% of her matches in 2 sets, indicating an ability to dominate. No known injury alert.

The statistics of both players, both in Grand Slams and outside, strongly indicate a match in 2 sets. Stakusic has a 90% rate of matches in 2 sets outside Grand Slams. Zhu, as an outsider in Grand Slams, has a 30% rate of matches in 3 sets, but Stakusic, as a favorite, has a 0% rate of losing a set in her recent matches (odds 1.21-1.5). The probability of a match in 2 sets is high.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in 2 sets. If Stakusic dominates as her statistics suggest (100% wins in 2 sets as a favorite outside Grand Slams), a close score like 6-4, 6-4 would result in 20 games. A wider score like 6-3, 6-3 would result in 18 games. The probability of a very close match with many games (e.g., 7-6, 7-5 = 25 games) is mitigated by Stakusic's strong tendency to finish her matches in 2 sets without losing a set in this odds range.