Rugby

Tennis

Elias Ymer - Nicolas Mejia: our prediction

23/02/2026•01:10

#55

Elias Ymer

2:0

6•4

Finished

#125

Nicolas Mejia

Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia Preview — Mexican Open, Qualification

Elias Ymer, the bookmakers' favorite, faces Nicolas Mejia in the Mexican Open qualifiers. Ymer, more experienced, shows solid form and a strong tendency to play three-set matches. Mejia, the underdog, demonstrates a good ability to win as a favorite but struggles against higher-ranked players. No injuries reported.

Our Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia predictions

Elias Ymer to Win

Ymer is the clear favorite (odds 1.67). His recent statistics show solid form (5 wins/10 last matches). He excels particularly as an underdog (50% win rate), indicating a strong ability to surprise. Against Mejia, who struggles to win as an underdog (30%), Ymer's experience and mental advantage should be decisive.

1.69

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Set statistics are very telling. Ymer plays 70% of his matches (non-Grand Slam) in 3 sets. Mejia plays 50%. Furthermore, when Ymer is the favorite, he loses at least one set in 70% of cases. Mejia, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 60% of cases. This strongly suggests a close match with three sets.

2.25

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

The prediction of a three-set match increases the probability of exceeding the 22.5 game threshold. If each set is close (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4), the total reaches 32 games. Even with a more one-sided set, Ymer's tendency for long matches (70% in 3 sets) and Mejia's ability to win sets as an underdog support this scenario. Confidence is medium because a close two-set match could also reach it.

1.84

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Elias Ymer vs Nicolas Mejia Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Elias Ymer	Nicolas Mejia
Win \| Lose	5 5	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	80%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	90%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%