Carlos Maria Zarate - Juan Pablo Varillas: our prediction

Varillas is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.24). His recent statistics are superior: 5 wins in last 10 matches vs 3 for Zarate. As a favorite (status confirmed by data), he wins 50% of his matches and, crucially, he wins 70% of his matches in 2 sets outside Grand Slams ('en2set'). Zarate, as an underdog, wins only 20% of the time. The difference in level and consistency should be decisive.

The data strongly supports a match in 2 sets. Varillas, the favorite, wins 70% of his matches (outside Grand Slams) in 2 sets ('en2set': 70%). Furthermore, when favorite, he only plays 30% of his matches in 3 sets ('en3set': 30%). Zarate, as underdog, loses 40% of his matches in 2 sets ('en2setoutsider': 40% for him, but favorite Varillas has a high 2-set closing rate). The combined probability of a 2-set match is high.

Although a 2-set match is likely, games could be numerous. Varillas often loses a set even when winning (60% of the time as favorite, 'perd1set_asfav_g': 60%). Zarate wins at least one set in 60% of his matches as underdog ('win1set_asoutsider_g': 60%). A tight 2-set scoreline (e.g., 7-5, 7-5 = 24 games) or a set lost by Varillas leading to a 3rd set is plausible. The 22.5 games line is reachable even in 2 sets.