Rugby

Tennis

Alexei Popyrin - Frances Tiafoe: our prediction

04/04/2026•02:00

#22

Alexei Popyrin

1:2

6•3

4•6

6•7

Finished

#16

Frances Tiafoe

Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoe Preview — US Men's Clay Court Championships

Frances Tiafoe, the favorite (odds 1.55), faces Alexei Popyrin (odds 2.44) in a clay court tournament. Tiafoe shows superior form (70% win rate in last 10 matches) and excellent performance as a favorite (90%). Popyrin, struggling (40% win rate), could offer resistance, but the statistics clearly lean towards Tiafoe.

Our Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoe predictions

Frances Tiafoe to Win

Tiafoe is the clear favorite (odds 1.55) with far superior recent form (70% win rate vs 40% for Popyrin). His statistics as a favorite are excellent (90% win rate). Popyrin struggles to win as an outsider (0%). No known injury alert contradicts this dynamic.

1.57

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

Previous analysis suggests a potentially close match, possibly going to 3 sets. A 3-set match on clay significantly increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 total games. Even a 2-set win for Tiafoe could be tight, surpassing this threshold.

1.72

Confidence

Medium

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Although Tiafoe is favored, his statistics show he often loses a set as a favorite (50%). Popyrin, as an outsider, wins at least one set in 20% of cases. On clay, matches can be longer. The probability of a 3-set match is supported by this data.

2.23

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoe

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoe Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alexei Popyrin	Frances Tiafoe
Win \| Lose	4 6	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	30%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	80%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	75%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	75%