Rugby

Tennis

Sebastian Baez - Stan Wawrinka: our prediction

06/04/2026•13:10

#25

Sebastian Baez

2:0

7•5

Finished

Stan Wawrinka

Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Sebastian Baez, the clear favorite (odds 1.39), faces veteran Stan Wawrinka (odds 2.91) at the Monte-Carlo Masters on clay. Baez, younger and in better recent form, is favored, but Wawrinka has the experience to cause an upset.

Our Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka predictions

Sebastian Baez to Win

Baez is the clear favorite (odds 1.39). His statistics as a favorite are solid (60% win rate). On clay, his preferred surface, and against a Wawrinka in the twilight of his career, his youth and consistency should make the difference. No known injury concerns.

1.4

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

Baez, as a favorite, finishes 90% of his matches (outside Grand Slams) in 2 sets. Wawrinka, as an underdog, loses 60% of his matches in 2 sets. The difference in current form and consistency leaves little room for a long three-set match.

1.52

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

With a likely Baez win in 2 sets (6-3, 6-4 or similar scores), the total number of games should stay under 22.5. Wawrinka's statistics show he often loses his matches in two sets without putting up too much resistance recently. However, his serve and experience could allow him to snatch a few games.

1.73

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Sebastian Baez	Stan Wawrinka
Win \| Lose	5 5	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	70%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	60%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	60%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	42%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	71%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%