Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Sebastian Baez: our prediction

07/04/2026•13:50

Carlos Alcaraz

2:0

6•1

6•3

Finished

#25

Sebastian Baez

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Carlos Alcaraz, the overwhelming favorite, faces Sebastian Baez at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Alcaraz, with odds of 1.03, is in excellent form and statistically dominant. No injuries reported. A one-sided match is expected.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to Win

Alcaraz is the overwhelming favorite (odds 1.03). His stats are impressive: 80% win rate as favorite, 70% of his matches (excluding Grand Slams) end in 2 sets. No injuries reported. Baez, despite decent form, faces a significant skill gap on clay.

1.03

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets in the Match

The match is best-of-3 sets (Masters 1000). Alcaraz finishes 70% of his matches (excluding Grand Slams) in 2 sets. Baez, as an outsider, finishes 90% of his matches in 2 sets. The probability of a 2-set match (clean win for Alcaraz) is very high.

1.12

Confidence

High

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Baez Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Sebastian Baez
Win \| Lose	8 2	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	90%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	80%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	66%