Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Alexander Bublik: our prediction

10/04/2026•16:10

Carlos Alcaraz

2:0

6•3

6•0

Finished

#10

Alexander Bublik

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Carlos Alcaraz, the clear favorite, faces Alexander Bublik at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Alcaraz shows solid form (80% recent wins) and a very low odd (1.06). Bublik, the underdog (odd 8.97), has demonstrated an ability to win sets against favorites. The match is played on clay, a surface favorable to Alcaraz. No known injury alerts.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to Win

Alcaraz is the undisputed favorite (odd 1.06). His recent stats are excellent: 80% wins in the last 10 matches and 80% wins as favorite. On clay, his preferred surface, his technical and physical advantage should be decisive. No injuries reported.

1.07

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

As a favorite (odd <1.20), Alcaraz loses a set in only 30% of cases. Furthermore, outside of Grand Slams, he finishes his matches in 2 sets 70% of the time. Bublik, although capable of surprises, has a 60% rate of matches ending in 2 sets as an underdog. The probability of a quick match is high.

1.2

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a match in 2 sets (Under 2.5) makes this bet consistent. If Alcaraz wins 2-0, typical scores (6-3, 6-4) total 19 games. Even with a tight set, the total often remains under 22.5. Alcaraz's dominant form and Bublik's tendency to lose in 2 sets (60% as underdog) support this scenario.

1.33

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Alexander Bublik
Win \| Lose	8 2	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	80%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	20%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	80%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	20%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	80%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	80%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	80%