Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik — Prediction
10/04/2026
#1
Carlos Alcaraz
15:45
Today
#11
Alexander Bublik
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X
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2
Match Preview
Carlos Alcaraz, the clear favorite, faces Alexander Bublik at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Alcaraz shows solid form (80% recent wins) and a very low odd (1.06). Bublik, the underdog (odd 8.97), has demonstrated an ability to win sets against favorites. The match is played on clay, a surface favorable to Alcaraz. No known injury alerts.
Our predictions
Carlos Alcaraz to Win
Alcaraz is the undisputed favorite (odd 1.06). His recent stats are excellent: 80% wins in the last 10 matches and 80% wins as favorite. On clay, his preferred surface, his technical and physical advantage should be decisive. No injuries reported.
1.06
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
As a favorite (odd <1.20), Alcaraz loses a set in only 30% of cases. Furthermore, outside of Grand Slams, he finishes his matches in 2 sets 70% of the time. Bublik, although capable of surprises, has a 60% rate of matches ending in 2 sets as an underdog. The probability of a quick match is high.
1.24
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
The prediction of a match in 2 sets (Under 2.5) makes this bet consistent. If Alcaraz wins 2-0, typical scores (6-3, 6-4) total 19 games. Even with a tight set, the total often remains under 22.5. Alcaraz's dominant form and Bublik's tendency to lose in 2 sets (60% as underdog) support this scenario.
1.33
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 70% | 80% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 20% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 80% | 80% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 20% | 20% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 33% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 30% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 80% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 80% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 83% | 80% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 100% |
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