Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Tomas Machac: our prediction

16/04/2026•10:00

Carlos Alcaraz

0:0

Finished

#22

Tomas Machac

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac Preview — Barcelona Open

Carlos Alcaraz, seeded and favorite, faces Tomas Machac at the Barcelona Open. Alcaraz is in great form with 70% recent wins and excellent performance as a favorite. Machac, the underdog, shows ability to win sets but has fewer victories. The match should be dominated by Alcaraz, but Machac could win a set.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac predictions

Victory of Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is the clear favorite with odds of 1.09. His statistics show 70% recent wins and 80% wins as a favorite. He is in better form and more experienced than Machac. No injuries reported.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Less than 2.5 sets in the match

Alcaraz has an 80% rate of matches in 2 sets as a favorite outside Majors. Machac has 30% recent matches in 2 sets. The probability of a two-set match is high, supported by Alcaraz's form.

1.3

Confidence

High

Less than 22.5 games in the match

If Alcaraz wins in two sets, the total games could be under 22.5. His dominant performances and high rate of two-set wins suggest a potentially short match. However, Machac can resist, hence medium confidence.

1.43

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Tomas Machac
Win \| Lose	7 3	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	30%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	80%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	62%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	75%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	75%