Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Joao Fonseca: our prediction

21/03/2026•01:25

Carlos Alcaraz

2:0

6•4

Finished

#26

Joao Fonseca

Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Preview — Miami Open

Carlos Alcaraz, the favorite and seeded player, faces young Brazilian Joao Fonseca at the Miami Open. The difference in experience and ranking is significant. Alcaraz, in excellent recent form, is a heavy favorite to win, likely in two sets.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to Win

Alcaraz is the heavy favorite (odds 1.13). His recent form is excellent (90% win rate in last 10 matches). As a favorite, he wins 90% of the time. Fonseca, while promising, lacks experience at this level. No known injury concerns.

1.13

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

As a favorite outside Grand Slams, Alcaraz finishes his matches in 2 sets 80% of the time. Fonseca, as an underdog, loses in 2 sets 60% of the time. The probability of a quick match in favor of Alcaraz is high.

1.35

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

If Alcaraz wins in two clear sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-4 = 19 games), the total will stay under the line. His potential dominance and high rate of 2-set victories support this scenario. However, Fonseca could resist in one set, increasing the game count.

1.6

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Joao Fonseca
Win \| Lose	9 1	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	55%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	44%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	100%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	90%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	83%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	40%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	100%