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Rei Sakamoto - Roberto Carballes Baena: our prediction

06/04/2026•14:40

#29

Rei Sakamoto

2:0

6•4

6•3

Finished

#51

Roberto Carballes Baena

Rei Sakamoto vs Roberto Carballes Baena Preview — Monza

ATP tennis match in Monza between young Rei Sakamoto and experienced Roberto Carballes Baena. The latter is the bookmakers' favorite, but Sakamoto shows solid recent form. The match could be tight.

Our Rei Sakamoto vs Roberto Carballes Baena predictions

Victory for Roberto Carballes Baena

Carballes Baena is the clear favorite (odds 1.56) and the more experienced player. His statistics as a favorite (60% wins in the last 10 matches) are solid. Sakamoto, although in form (60% wins), is often the underdog and has a lower win rate (30%) in that role. Experience and favorite status should make the difference.

1.54

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Both players' statistics suggest a three-set match. Sakamoto, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 50% of cases. Carballes Baena, as a favorite with similar odds (1.21-1.5), loses one set in 60% of cases. Furthermore, Sakamoto's recent form (6 wins/10) indicates he can put up a fight. The probability of a three-set match is high.

2.33

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

With a high probability of a three-set match, the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-5) reaches 24 games. The players' tendencies (Sakamoto often winning a set, Carballes Baena losing one) support the idea of competitive sets, increasing the game count.

1.97

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Rei Sakamoto vs Roberto Carballes Baena

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Rei Sakamoto vs Roberto Carballes Baena Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Rei Sakamoto	Roberto Carballes Baena
Win \| Lose	6 4	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	100%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	37%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	62%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	100%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	28%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	57%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%