Corentin Denolly - Marc-Andrea Huesler: our prediction

Huesler is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.25). Despite mixed form as a favorite (30% wins in last 10 matches in this role), his technical advantage and superior ranking against Denolly, who is struggling greatly (3 wins in last 10 matches, 20% wins as an outsider), are decisive. No known injury alert contradicts this status.

Player statistics as favorite/outsider argue for a 3-set match. Huesler loses at least 1 set in 90% of his recent matches as a favorite ('perd1set_asfav_g': 90%). Denolly, as an outsider, wins at least 1 set in 40% of cases ('win1set_asoutsider_g': 40%). Furthermore, in non-Grand Slam matches, Huesler plays 40% of his matches in 3 sets as a favorite ('en3set': 40%). The probability of a straight 2-set match seems low.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a 3-set match. A match in 3 sets (e.g., 6-4, 4-6, 6-4) easily exceeds the 22.5 games threshold. Given Huesler's tendency to lose sets even when winning, and Denolly's occasional ability to win one, a high total number of games is plausible. Confidence is medium because a tight 2-set match (7-6, 7-5 = 25 games) could also reach it, but a straight 2-0 win for Huesler (e.g., 6-3, 6-3) would cause it to fail.