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Karolina Muchova - Elise Mertens: our prediction

16/04/2026•12:40

Karolina Muchova

2:1

1•6

6•3

6•0

Finished

Elise Mertens

Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens Preview — Porsche Tennis Grand Prix

Karolina Muchova, the clear favorite (odds 1.51), faces Elise Mertens (odds 2.49) at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Muchova shows solid form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) and remarkable efficiency as a favorite (100% wins). Mertens, more irregular (50% wins), will need to rely on her experience to create an upset. No major injury alerts are reported for either player.

Our Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens predictions

Karolina Muchova to Win

Muchova is the logical favorite (odds 1.51). Her statistics are impressive: 80% wins in the last 10 matches and a 100% win rate when favored. Against Mertens, who has a 50% win record and only a 20% win rate as an outsider, the Czech player holds a significant advantage in form and confidence.

1.4

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

The players' statistics in non-Grand Slam matches strongly favor a match in two sets. Muchova finished 90% of her recent matches (non-Grand Slam) in 2 sets, and Mertens 80%. Furthermore, when Muchova is favored, she loses a set only 20% of the time. The probability of a long match is low.

1.52

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in two sets. If Muchova dominates as expected (potentially 6-3, 6-4), the total number of games will likely stay under the 22.5 threshold. However, Mertens is an experienced player capable of resistance, which could increase the game count. Confidence is therefore moderate, relying on Muchova's tendency to conclude her matches efficiently.

1.67

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Karolina Muchova	Elise Mertens
Win \| Lose	8 2	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	75%