Rugby

Tennis

Henrique Rocha - Jan Choinski: our prediction

20/04/2026•16:35

#21

Henrique Rocha

2:1

7•6

6•7

7•5

Finished

#105

Jan Choinski

Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski Preview — Madrid Open, Qualification

Henrique Rocha, the favorite, faces Jan Choinski in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Rocha shows better recent form (6/10 wins) and a strong tendency to win his matches in 2 sets when favored (90%). Choinski, less consistent, could offer resistance but statistical logic leans towards Rocha.

Our Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski predictions

Henrique Rocha to Win

Rocha is the clear favorite (odds 1.53) and shows superior form with 60% wins in his last 10 matches, compared to 40% for Choinski. As a favorite, he wins 70% of the time and his matches end in 2 sets 90% of the time. No known injury alert contradicts this dynamic.

1.42

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets

Match format statistics are very clear. As a favorite, Rocha finishes his matches in 2 sets 90% of the time. Choinski, for his part, loses 70% of his matches in 2 sets when favored and 50% when an underdog. The probability of a match in 2 sets (2-0 or 0-2 victory) is therefore very high.

1.53

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in 2 sets. If Rocha wins 2-0, a typical score like 6-4, 6-3 gives 19 games. Choinski has a limited ability to force a third set (30% of matches go to 3 sets as an underdog), but if he wins one, the total games could exceed 22.5. The probability of a tight 2-set match or a clear 2-0 supports this bet.

1.8

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Henrique Rocha	Jan Choinski
Win \| Lose	6 4	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	25%
% of match in 4 sets or more	66%	75%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	25%
% of match in 4 sets or more	66%	75%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	66%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	83%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	33%