20/04/2026

#117

Alina Charaeva

10:00

Today

#29

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Match Preview

Aliaksandra Sasnovich, the clear favorite (odds 1.26), faces Alina Charaeva in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Sasnovich shows solid form and great efficiency in finishing her matches in two sets when favored. Charaeva, the underdog (odds 3.64), has demonstrated an ability to win sets against favorites, but the difference in level and consistency should be decisive.

Our predictions

Victory for Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Sasnovich is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.26). Her statistics as a favorite are solid: 70% overall wins and 90% wins in 2 sets in her last 10 matches outside the Majors. Against a less experienced and less consistent opponent, her consistency and experience should make the difference.

1.26

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Sasnovich finishes 100% of her recent matches (outside Majors) in 2 sets (10/10). As a favorite, this rate is 90%. Charaeva, although she can win a set (60% chance as an underdog), faces a very efficient opponent at closing out matches quickly. The probability of a two-set match is high.

1.4

Confidence

High

Market Signals

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Success Rate per bet

History

Surface

Win

	Alina Charaeva	Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Win \| Lose	6 4	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	57%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	25%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	66%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	57%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	33%	0%

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