Alina Charaeva - Tamara Korpatsch: our prediction

Alina Charaeva is the favorite with odds of 1.63, and her overall win rate is 70% in the last 10 matches, identical to Korpatsch. However, Charaeva has a better record as an underdog (70% vs 40%), showing her ability to win even when not favored. Additionally, she has an excellent win rate as a favorite with odds between 1.51 and 1.8 (50% in 4 matches), while Korpatsch has a higher loss rate as a favorite in the same odds range (33% losses). Charaeva seems more solid in this context.

Statistics show that in the last 10 matches (excluding Grand Slams), Charaeva finishes 60% of her matches in 2 sets, and Korpatsch 50%. When Charaeva is the favorite, this figure rises to 80%, and for Korpatsch to 60%. Both players therefore have a strong tendency to finish their matches in 2 sets, especially when favored. The match is being played in Paris, a non-Grand Slam tournament, so the probability of a 2-set match is high.

Given the high probability of a 2-set match (see previous analysis), the total number of games could be under 22.5. A typical 2-set match often falls between 12 and 20 games. However, confidence is low because 3-set matches can easily exceed 22.5 games, and both players have a non-negligible rate of 3-set matches (40% for Charaeva and 50% for Korpatsch). The bet is risky but consistent with the prediction of under 2.5 sets.