21/04/2026

#128

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

11:00

Today

#128

Elmer Moeller

Match Preview

Pablo Llamas Ruiz, the clear favorite with odds of 1.30, faces Elmer Moeller in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Llamas Ruiz shows solid form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) and high efficiency as a favorite, especially on clay. Moeller, with more modest form (30% wins), will struggle to create an upset. The match should be short.

Our predictions

Pablo Llamas Ruiz to Win

Llamas Ruiz is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.30). His recent form is excellent (8 wins/10), with an 80% win rate as a favorite. He faces Moeller, who is struggling (3 wins/10). The surface (clay) and context (qualifiers) are favorable to him. No known injury alerts.

1.29

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

Statistics from the last 10 matches (excluding Grand Slams) show Llamas Ruiz wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets. As a favorite, this rate is 80%. Moeller, as a favorite, wins 90% of his matches in 2 sets, but he is the underdog here. The gap in level and form suggests a quick match in favor of the favorite.

1.45

Confidence

High

Market Signals

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Success Rate per bet

History

Surface

Win

	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	Elmer Moeller
Win \| Lose	8 2	3 7
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	42%	66%
% of match in 4 sets or more	14%	33%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	66%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	33%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	25%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	75%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	40%	40%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	25%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	20%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	75%

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