Rugby

Tennis

Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar: our prediction

21/04/2026•13:30

#63

Marco Trungelliti

0:2

6•7

3•6

Finished

#66

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Preview — Madrid Open, Qualification

Madrid Open qualifying match between the experienced Marco Trungelliti and the young Daniel Merida Aguilar. Trungelliti shows solid form (7W/3L) and excellent performance as a favorite. Merida Aguilar, the bookmakers' favorite, has identical form but less convincing statistics as a favorite. No known injury alerts. A tight match is expected.

Our Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar predictions

Marco Trungelliti to Win

Trungelliti shows identical form (7W/3L) but superior statistics as a favorite (90% win rate in last 10 matches) compared to 70% for Merida Aguilar. At odds of 2.04, he represents interesting value as a statistical underdog against a bookmakers' favorite who is less convincing in that role.

2.06

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets

Both players tend to play long matches. In the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches, Trungelliti played 30% of matches in 3 sets, Merida Aguilar 50%. Furthermore, when favored, Trungelliti loses at least one set in 60% of cases. The probability of a 3-set match is high.

2.25

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games

The prediction of a 3-set match makes this bet consistent. A 3-set match usually exceeds the 22.5 games mark, unless the sets are very one-sided. Given the balanced level shown by both players, tight sets are likely, which should increase the total number of games.

1.85

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Marco Trungelliti	Daniel Merida Aguilar
Win \| Lose	7 3	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	16%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	66%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	33%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	37%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	62%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%