Rugby

Tennis

Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar: our prediction

23/04/2026•18:10

#63

Marco Trungelliti

1:2

4•6

6•1

6•7

Finished

#61

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Preview — Madrid Open

Experienced Marco Trungelliti faces young Daniel Merida Aguilar at the Madrid Open. Trungelliti is in solid form (6/10 wins) and performs well as an underdog. Merida Aguilar, the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.71), shows even better form (7/10 wins) and high efficiency as a favorite. The match should be close, with a high probability of going to three sets.

Our Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics show a strong tendency for three-set matches for both players outside of Grand Slams (Trungelliti 30%, Merida Aguilar 50%). Furthermore, Trungelliti often wins at least one set as an underdog (70%), and Merida Aguilar often loses a set as a favorite (50%). This suggests a balanced match with a high probability of exceeding 2.5 sets.

2.25

Confidence

High

Victory for Daniel Merida Aguilar

Daniel Merida Aguilar is the designated favorite (odds 1.71) and shows better recent form (7/10 wins vs. 6/10). His statistics as a favorite are excellent (80% wins). Although Trungelliti is a dangerous underdog, Merida Aguilar's consistency and favorite status put him in a strong position.

1.69

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

With a high probability of three sets (prediction 1), the total number of games should be high. Even in two sets, if the sets are close (e.g., 7-5, 6-4), the total can exceed 22.5. The combination of Trungelliti's solidity and Merida Aguilar's efficiency suggests contested sets.

1.85

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Marco Trungelliti	Daniel Merida Aguilar
Win \| Lose	6 4	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	16%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	66%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	37%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	62%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%