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Tennis

Sloane Stephens - Anhelina Kalinina: our prediction

21/04/2026•17:45

Sloane Stephens

1:2

6•2

6•7

2•6

Finished

#15

Anhelina Kalinina

Sloane Stephens vs Anhelina Kalinina Preview — Madrid Open, Qualification

Sloane Stephens, a former Grand Slam champion, faces Anhelina Kalinina in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Kalinina is the clear favorite with odds of 1.14, backed by superior recent form (80% win rate in last 10 matches vs. 40% for Stephens). The match is played on clay, a surface suited to both players. Statistics suggest a potentially tight match in terms of sets, with a notable probability of Stephens winning at least one set.

Our Sloane Stephens vs Anhelina Kalinina predictions

Victory for Anhelina Kalinina

Kalinina is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.14). Her recent form is excellent (8 wins/last 10 matches, 80%). As a favorite, she wins 80% of her matches. Stephens, struggling (4 wins/10, 40%), has had little success against such overwhelming favorites (0% win rate vs. odds 1.0-1.2). The surface (clay) suits both, but momentum and confidence are clearly on Kalinina's side.

1.15

Confidence

Very high

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Set statistics support a 3-set match. Kalinina, although the favorite, loses at least one set in 50% of her matches as a favorite. Stephens, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 40% of her matches. Furthermore, in non-Grand Slam matches, Kalinina plays 40% of her matches in 3 sets as a favorite, and Stephens 30% as an underdog. The combination of Stephens' resilience and Kalinina's tendency to drop sets makes Over 2.5 sets likely.

Confidence

High

Market signals on Sloane Stephens vs Anhelina Kalinina

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Sloane Stephens vs Anhelina Kalinina Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Sloane Stephens	Anhelina Kalinina
Win \| Lose	4 6	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	40%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%