Maria Timofeeva - Adelina Lachinova: our prediction

Maria Timofeeva is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.1. She has a 50% win rate in her last 10 matches, and when favored with odds between 1.0 and 1.2, she wins 100% of the time (3/3). On the other side, Adelina Lachinova has a win rate of only 33.3% and has won only one match as an outsider out of 5. Timofeeva also has a better record as a favorite (50% wins) compared to 100% for Lachinova but in only one match. The difference in level is significant.

Given the high probability that the match will end in 2 sets (see previous analysis), the total number of games will likely be under 22.5. A 2-set match typically has between 12 and 20 games. Even with a close set, it is unlikely to reach 23 games. The statistics of Timofeeva and Lachinova show a tendency for short matches.

Both players have a very strong tendency to finish their matches in 2 sets. Timofeeva has 90% of her matches (excluding Grand Slams) ending in 2 sets, and Lachinova 100%. Additionally, when Timofeeva is favored, 90% of her matches end in 2 sets. The probability of a third set is therefore very low.