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Madison Keys - Sarah Rakotomanga: our prediction

14/05/2026•15:40

Madison Keys

2:0

6•4

6•1

Finished

#114

Sarah Rakotomanga

Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga Preview — Paris

Madison Keys, the heavy favorite, faces Sarah Rakotomanga, a far less experienced player. Keys has a 60% win rate in her last 10 matches, while Rakotomanga has won only one of her last 10 matches. The odds reflect this huge disparity (1.04 vs 9.06).

Our Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga predictions

Madison Keys to win

Madison Keys is a world-class player, favorite with odds of 1.04. Her overall win rate is 60% and rises to 70% when she is the favorite. Against an opponent who has won only one of her last 10 matches (10% win rate), the logic is relentless.

1.05

Confidence

Very high

Under 22.5 games in the match

A match in straight 2 sets (e.g., 6-2, 6-1) would total under 22.5 games. Given Keys' overwhelming superiority and Rakotomanga's tendency to lose quickly, it is very likely that the total number of games will remain below this threshold.

1.04

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Madison Keys, as a favorite, finishes her matches in 2 sets 60% of the time (excluding Grand Slams). Sarah Rakotomanga, for her part, often loses in 2 sets. The combination of Keys' dominance and Rakotomanga's weakness makes a 2-set match very likely.

1.18

Confidence

High

Market signals on Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Madison Keys	Sarah Rakotomanga
Win \| Lose	6 4	1 9
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	80%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	25%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	75%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	10%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	28%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	42%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	100%