Keegan Smith - Philip Sekulic: our prediction

Smith is the favorite with odds of 1.68 and has a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 60% for Sekulic. Additionally, as a favorite with similar odds (between 1.51 and 1.8), Smith has a 25% win rate (1/4), while Sekulic as an outsider in the same odds range has a 25% win rate (1/4). Smith has the psychological and statistical advantage.

With a 60% rate of 2-set matches for both players, the probability that the match ends in 2 sets (under 2.5 sets) is high. This is consistent with the under 22.5 games bet, as a 2-set match generally has fewer games. Statistics show that Smith and Sekulic tend to play 2-set matches, especially when Smith is favorite (50% of his wins in 2 sets) and Sekulic is outsider (70% of his matches in 2 sets as an outsider).

Both players have a 60% rate of 2-set matches (outside Grand Slams), suggesting matches are often short. Additionally, Smith has a 50% rate of 2-set wins when favorite, and Sekulic 60%. The probability of a 2-set match is high, which limits the total number of games. The average games per match for these players is not provided, but trends indicate a tight but short match.