Rugby

Tennis

Luca Castelnuovo - Jurij Rodionov: our prediction

06/06/2026•12:40

#209

Luca Castelnuovo

0:2

1•6

4•6

Finished

#51

Jurij Rodionov

Luca Castelnuovo vs Jurij Rodionov Preview — Stuttgart Open, Qualification

Qualification match for the Stuttgart Open between Luca Castelnuovo and Jurij Rodionov. Rodionov is the favorite with a 50% win rate and better recent form. Castelnuovo has a 30% win rate and is less effective on grass.

Our Luca Castelnuovo vs Jurij Rodionov predictions

Victory for Jurij Rodionov

Rodionov has an overall win rate of 50% compared to 30% for Castelnuovo. As a favorite, Rodionov wins 70% of his matches, while Castelnuovo wins only 66.7% as a favorite. Rodionov also performs better as an underdog (40% wins) versus 20% for Castelnuovo. Recent form and surface statistics favor Rodionov.

1.14

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets

Both players have a 60% rate of matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams). Castelnuovo as a favorite has 100% of his matches in 2 sets, Rodionov 50%. As an underdog, Castelnuovo has 50% of matches in 2 sets, Rodionov 60%. The probability of a 2-set match is high, making under 2.5 sets very likely.

1.34

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games

Given the high probability of a 2-set match (60% for both players) and the tendency for tight but not overly long sets, the total number of games should be under 22.5. Set statistics and player form suggest a relatively short match.

1.6

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Luca Castelnuovo vs Jurij Rodionov

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Luca Castelnuovo vs Jurij Rodionov Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Luca Castelnuovo	Jurij Rodionov
Win \| Lose	3 7	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	20%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	66%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	20%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	66%