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Tennis

Katie Boulter - Leylah Fernandez: our prediction

08/06/2026

#29

Katie Boulter

15:30

Today

#22

Leylah Fernandez

Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Preview — HSBC Championships

Katie Boulter faces Leylah Fernandez at the HSBC Championships. Both players are tied in their last 10 matches (5 wins each). Fernandez is the favorite according to the odds (1.83 vs 1.94). The match promises to be close.

Our Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Boulter has a 30% rate of 3-set matches outside of Grand Slams, and Fernandez 40%. Additionally, Boulter loses a set as a favorite in 60% of her matches, suggesting she could concede a set. Fernandez, as a favorite, has a 50% rate of losing a set. These statistics indicate a high probability of the match going beyond 2 sets.

2.3

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

Both players tend to play close matches. Boulter often loses a set as a favorite (60% of her matches), extending the duration. Fernandez, for her part, has a 40% rate of 3-set matches outside of Grand Slams. With players of similar level, the match should exceed 22.5 games.

1.97

Confidence

High

Victory for Leylah Fernandez

Leylah Fernandez is the favorite with odds of 1.83. She has a better win rate as a favorite (70% compared to Boulter's 60%). Additionally, Fernandez has a 100% win rate when her odds are between 1.51 and 1.8, which is the case here. Boulter, on the other hand, has a win rate as an underdog of only 20%.

1.94

Confidence

High

Market signals on Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Katie Boulter	Leylah Fernandez
Win \| Lose	5 5	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	50%