Rugby

Tennis

Aryna Sabalenka - Zhuoxuan Bai: our prediction

21/01/2026•01:45

Aryna Sabalenka

2:0

6•3

6•1

Finished

#115

Zhuoxuan Bai

Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai Preview — Australian Open WTA

Aryna Sabalenka, seeded and a heavy favorite, faces young Zhuoxuan Bai in the first round of the Australian Open. The gap in level and experience is considerable, which should lead to a quick victory for Sabalenka.

Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai predictions

Victory for Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is one of the best players in the world, experienced in Grand Slams. Her recent stats (90% win rate as favorite, 100% win rate with odds between 1.0 and 1.2) and the ranking gap against Bai make this bet very solid. No known injury alerts.

1.01

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets (Match in 2 sets)

Sabalenka has an 80% rate of matches in 2 sets when favored outside Grand Slams. In Grand Slams, her rate is 70% (100% - 30% of matches in 3 sets). Against a much less experienced player, a straight-set win is the most likely scenario. 'Under 2.5 sets' is consistent with Sabalenka's victory.

1.05

Confidence

High

Market signals on Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Aryna Sabalenka	Zhuoxuan Bai
Win \| Lose	9 1	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	100%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	80%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%