Rugby

Tennis

Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka: our prediction

27/04/2026•13:10

Aryna Sabalenka

2:1

6•7

6•3

6•2

Finished

Naomi Osaka

Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Preview — Madrid Open

Aryna Sabalenka, the favorite, faces Naomi Osaka at the Madrid Open. Sabalenka is in great form with a 100% win rate in her last 10 matches, while Osaka has a 70% win rate. The match promises to be tight, but Sabalenka has a clear advantage.

Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka predictions

Victory for Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is full of confidence with 10 consecutive wins and a 100% win rate as a favorite. Osaka, although competitive, has a 30% loss rate and hasn't beaten a top-ranked favorite recently. The odds of 1.12 reflect this dominance well.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Both players have an 80% rate of matches in 2 sets outside of Grand Slams. Sabalenka, as an overwhelming favorite, should win in 2 sets, making the 'under 2.5 sets' bet very likely.

1.3

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Sabalenka has 80% of her non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and Osaka also 80%. With Sabalenka's expected dominance, the match should end quickly in 2 sets, resulting in a total number of games generally under 22.5.

1.39

Confidence

High

Market signals on Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Aryna Sabalenka	Naomi Osaka
Win \| Lose	10	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%