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Aryna Sabalenka - Jaqueline Cristian: our prediction

25/04/2026•20:10

Aryna Sabalenka

2:0

6•1

6•4

Finished

#32

Jaqueline Cristian

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian Preview — Madrid Open

Aryna Sabalenka, world number 1 and heavy favorite, faces Jaqueline Cristian, a much lower-ranked outsider, at the Madrid Open. Sabalenka is in great form, having won all of her last 10 matches, while Cristian has a record of 6 wins and 4 losses. The indoor hard court is favorable to Sabalenka.

Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian predictions

Victory for Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is world number 1, favorite with odds of 1.02. She has won her last 10 matches, 100% as a favorite. Cristian has lost 4 of her last 10 matches and has never beaten a top-10 player (0 wins in 5 matches against favorites with odds between 1.0 and 1.2). Logic and statistics strongly favor Sabalenka.

1.03

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Sabalenka wins 80% of her matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams). Cristian, on the other hand, often loses in 2 sets when she is an underdog (50% of her matches in 2 sets). The probability of this match ending in 2 sets is very high, especially given Sabalenka's expected dominance.

1.14

Confidence

Very high

Under 22.5 games in the match

With a likely win in 2 straight sets (e.g., 6-2, 6-3), the total number of games should be under 22.5. Sabalenka tends to dominate her opponents quickly, and Cristian struggles against top-10 players. A fast and controlled match is expected.

1.14

Confidence

High

Market signals on Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Aryna Sabalenka	Jaqueline Cristian
Win \| Lose	10	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	80%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%