Rugby

Tennis

Varvara Gracheva - Jessica Pegula: our prediction

17/02/2026•08:10

#43

Varvara Gracheva

0:2

4•6

0•6

Finished

Jessica Pegula

Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegula Preview — Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

Jessica Pegula, the seeded player and heavy favorite, faces Varvara Gracheva in a first-round match in Dubai. Pegula, ranked much higher, is in excellent form and has a very low odd (1.15). Statistics show she often wins her matches in two sets when favored. Gracheva, the underdog, has a low win probability but can sometimes win a set.

Our Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegula predictions

Jessica Pegula to Win

Jessica Pegula is the clear favorite (odd 1.15). Her statistics as a favorite are excellent (90% wins in the last 10 matches). She is in great form (7 wins out of 10) and her ranking is much higher than Gracheva's. No injuries reported. The probability of a Pegula win is very high.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets in the Match

As the favorite, Pegula has a strong tendency to win in two sets (80% of her wins as a favorite in non-Grand Slam matches are in 2 sets). Gracheva, as the underdog, rarely wins a set against favorites with such a low odd (0% in the 1.0-1.2 category). The probability of a two-set match (2-0 win for Pegula) is high.

1.3

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

If Pegula wins in two straightforward sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-4), the total games would be 19. Given her status as a heavy favorite and her ability to dominate, a short match with a limited number of games is likely. However, unexpected resistance from Gracheva could increase the game count, hence a medium confidence level.

1.36

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegula

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegula Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Varvara Gracheva	Jessica Pegula
Win \| Lose	8 2	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	100%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	83%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	66%