Rugby

Tennis

Roberto Bautista Agut - Jack Draper: our prediction

07/03/2026•20:05

Roberto Bautista Agut

1:2

6•3

3•6

2•6

Finished

#15

Jack Draper

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Jack Draper, the heavy favorite, faces Roberto Bautista Agut in a Masters 1000 hard court match. Recent statistics and odds indicate a clear superiority for the Briton, but the Spaniard's experience could extend the encounter.

Our Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper predictions

Jack Draper to Win

Jack Draper is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.12). His win statistics as a favorite are solid (70% in the last 10 matches). He faces Roberto Bautista Agut, whose form is declining and who wins only 30% of his recent matches. No injury alerts have been reported for either player. Draper's technical and physical superiority on hard court should be decisive.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets

In non-Grand Slam tournaments, Jack Draper finishes 50% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite. Roberto Bautista Agut, as an outsider, finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets (quick defeats). Given the imbalance shown by the odds and form, a match in two sets (2-0 victory for Draper) is the most likely scenario.

1.3

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

If the match is played in two sets, the total number of games is very likely to stay under 22.5. Draper, in good form, is capable of winning sets with tight but not necessarily very high game scores (e.g., 6-4, 6-3 = 19 games). Bautista Agut's low ability to win sets as an outsider (30%) supports this hypothesis. However, a very contested set could push the total over, hence medium confidence.

1.42

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Jack Draper Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Roberto Bautista Agut	Jack Draper
Win \| Lose	3 7	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	70%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	80%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	83%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%