Rugby

Tennis

Cameron Norrie - Alex de Minaur: our prediction

07/04/2026•16:40

#11

Cameron Norrie

1:2

6•7

6•2

2•6

Finished

Alex de Minaur

Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Masters 1000 match on clay in Monte Carlo between Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur. De Minaur is the favorite according to the odds (1.45) and shows better recent form on this surface. Norrie, struggling this season, will need to find his best level to cause an upset.

Our Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur predictions

Alex de Minaur to Win

De Minaur is clearly the favorite (odds 1.45). His statistics as a favorite are solid (70% wins). On clay, his recent form and consistency give him an advantage against a Norrie lacking confidence.

1.4

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets

Non-Grand Slam statistics indicate a high probability of a match in 2 sets (70% for De Minaur, 80% for Norrie all matches considered). The difference in level and current form makes a 2-set match (2-0) the most likely scenario.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

If the favorite wins in 2 sets, a total games under 22.5 is plausible. Sets on clay can be tight, but De Minaur's tendency to win his matches relatively directly (and Norrie's struggles) supports this bet.

1.74

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Cameron Norrie	Alex de Minaur
Win \| Lose	6 4	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	30%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	75%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	85%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	100%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	80%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	75%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	100%