Rugby

Tennis

Daniil Medvedev - Matteo Berrettini: our prediction

08/04/2026•11:10

Daniil Medvedev

0:2

0•6

Finished

Matteo Berrettini

Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Daniil Medvedev, the clear favorite, faces Matteo Berrettini at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Medvedev shows solid form and impressive winning statistics as a favorite. Berrettini, the underdog, can be dangerous but his consistency against top players is in question. The match is played on clay, a surface on which Medvedev has improved.

Our Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini predictions

Daniil Medvedev to Win

Medvedev is the logical favorite (odds 1.46). His statistics are overwhelming: 90% win rate as a favorite (9/10) and 80% overall wins in his last 10 matches. Against a lower-ranked opponent and on a surface he is mastering better and better, his consistency and mental strength should make the difference. No known injury alerts.

1.36

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

In Masters 1000 tournaments (excluding Grand Slams), Medvedev finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite (8/10). Berrettini, for his part, loses 60% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the underdog (6/10 overall, 7/10 specifically). The difference in level and the fast surface of Monte Carlo (for clay) could favor a short match controlled by the favorite.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a Medvedev win in 2 sets. If the match takes place in two tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games) or wider, the total number of games will likely remain below the 22.5 mark. Medvedev's statistics as a favorite (few sets conceded) and Berrettini's potential weaknesses on return support this hypothesis. Confidence is medium because a very tight set could exceed the limit.

1.8

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Daniil Medvedev	Matteo Berrettini
Win \| Lose	8 2	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	80%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	60%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	70%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	25%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	66%