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Alex Bolt - Ilia Simakin: our prediction

21/04/2026•05:50

#80

Alex Bolt

1:2

6•7

6•3

1•6

Finished

#202

Ilia Simakin

Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin Preview — Gwangju

Alex Bolt, the betting favorite, faces the young Ilia Simakin. Bolt, more experienced, has a solid win statistic as a favorite (80%). Simakin shows superior recent form (70% wins in the last 10 matches) and a strong ability to win as a favorite (90%). The match should be tight, with a high probability of lasting three sets.

Our Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics from the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches show both players have a strong tendency to play 3-set matches (60% each). Furthermore, when favorite, Bolt loses at least one set in 50% of cases, and Simakin, when favorite, loses one in 70% of cases. This indicates a high probability of a three-set match.

2.23

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

The high probability of a three-set match (see bet 1 analysis) naturally leads to a high total number of games. A match in two tight sets (e.g., 7-6, 7-6) reaches 24 games, and a three-set match almost always exceeds the 22.5 game mark. Given the profiles and statistics for tight sets, the over is very likely.

1.85

Confidence

High

Victory for Ilia Simakin

Simakin shows superior recent form (70% wins in the last 10 matches vs. 60% for Bolt) and an excellent win statistic as a favorite (90%). Although Bolt is the betting favorite, the value lies with Simakin given his momentum and efficiency in that role. The absence of injury information reinforces this perspective.

2.08

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alex Bolt	Ilia Simakin
Win \| Lose	6 4	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	71%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	28%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%