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Tennis

Hubert Hurkacz - Lorenzo Musetti: our prediction

24/04/2026•11:10

Hubert Hurkacz

0:2

4•6

6•7

Finished

#15

Lorenzo Musetti

Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Preview — Madrid Open

Hubert Hurkacz faces Lorenzo Musetti at the Madrid Open 2026. Hurkacz, the underdog, has a 30% win rate in his last 10 matches, while Musetti, the favorite, has 70% wins. Statistics show Hurkacz tends to lose sets when favored (70%) but often wins a set as an underdog (80%). Musetti is solid as a favorite (70% wins) and often finishes matches in 2 sets (80%).

Our Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti predictions

Victory for Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti is the favorite with odds of 1.53 and a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches. As a favorite, he wins 70% of his matches, which is solid. Hurkacz, as an underdog, has only 30% wins. The trend is clearly in Musetti's favor.

1.54

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Musetti finishes 80% of his matches (non-Grand Slam) in 2 sets. Hurkacz, as a favorite, finishes 90% of his matches in 2 sets, but here he is the underdog. However, Musetti's trend of winning in 2 sets is strong. The match should end in 2 sets, so under 2.5 sets.

1.57

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Musetti finishes 80% of his matches (non-Grand Slam) in 2 sets, suggesting short matches. Hurkacz, as an underdog, tends to lose quickly. The combination of Musetti's form and Hurkacz's weakness makes a match under 22.5 games likely.

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Hubert Hurkacz	Lorenzo Musetti
Win \| Lose	3 7	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	60%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	66%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	55%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	25%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	80%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	75%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	50%