Rugby

Tennis

Karolina Pliskova - Maria Sakkari: our prediction

24/04/2026•11:10

Karolina Pliskova

2:0

6•4

7•6

Finished

Maria Sakkari

Karolina Pliskova vs Maria Sakkari Preview — Madrid Open

First round match of the Madrid Open between Karolina Pliskova and Maria Sakkari. Pliskova has a 60% win record in her last 10 matches, while Sakkari is at 50%. Sakkari is the favorite with odds of 1.65, but Pliskova has shown good resistance as an underdog.

Our Karolina Pliskova vs Maria Sakkari predictions

Under 2.5 sets

Sakkari has won 80% of her last 10 matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams), and Pliskova 60%. The probability of a match in 2 sets is high, especially since Sakkari is the favorite and the match is played on outdoor clay, a surface where she excels.

1.54

Confidence

High

Victory of Maria Sakkari

Sakkari is the favorite with odds of 1.65. She has a 70% win rate when favored (compared to 50% for Pliskova). Additionally, Sakkari has a better record on clay and has won 80% of her matches in 2 sets, which reinforces her favorite status.

1.66

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games

With a high probability of a match in 2 sets (Sakkari 80%, Pliskova 60%), the total number of games should be under 22.5. Sakkari being the favorite, a score in 2 tight sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) would give 20 games, well below the threshold.

1.71

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Karolina Pliskova vs Maria Sakkari

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Karolina Pliskova vs Maria Sakkari Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Karolina Pliskova	Maria Sakkari
Win \| Lose	6 4	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	22%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	60%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	80%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	50%