Rugby

Tennis

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno Busta: our prediction

25/04/2026•11:10

#22

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2:0

6•3

Finished

#10

Pablo Carreno Busta

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta Preview — Madrid Open

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the first round of the 2026 Madrid Open. Davidovich Fokina is the favorite with odds of 1.47, while Carreno Busta is the underdog at 2.67. Both players are in form, but Carreno Busta has a better recent win percentage (80% vs 50%). The match is played on clay, the preferred surface for both.

Our Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta predictions

Under 2.5 sets in the match

As mentioned, statistics show that both players often finish their matches in 2 sets outside of Grand Slams. Davidovich Fokina has a 90% chance of winning in 2 sets when favored, and Carreno Busta 70%. A 2-set match is therefore the most likely outcome.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Both players tend to finish their matches quickly outside of Grand Slams: Davidovich Fokina wins in 2 sets in 90% of cases when favored, and Carreno Busta in 70% of cases. A 2-set match is therefore very likely, keeping the total number of games under 22.5.

1.8

Confidence

High

Victory for Pablo Carreno Busta

Pablo Carreno Busta has an 80% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 50% for Davidovich Fokina. Additionally, Carreno Busta is very solid on clay and has a good record as an underdog (50% wins). Davidovich Fokina, although favored, has shown signs of inconsistency.

2.75

Confidence

High

Market signals on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	Pablo Carreno Busta
Win \| Lose	5 5	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	50%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	66%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	75%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	100%