Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno Borges — Prediction
01/05/2026
#38
Matteo Arnaldi
12:00
Today
#33
Nuno Borges
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Matteo Arnaldi faces Nuno Borges in Cagliari. Borges is the favorite with odds of 1.75, while Arnaldi is at 1.97. Statistics show Arnaldi has a 70% win rate when favorite, but only 30% overall. Borges has a 40% win rate overall and 40% as favorite. The match could be close.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics show Borges has 60% of his matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams) and Arnaldi 40%. As a favorite, Borges has 60% of matches in 2 sets. There is a decent probability that the match ends in 2 sets, thus under 2.5 sets.
1.58
Confidence
Medium
Under 22.5 games in the match
Both players tend to finish matches quickly. Arnaldi has 40% of his matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams) and Borges 60%. As an outsider, Arnaldi has 60% of matches in 2 sets. The match should be short, under 22.5 games.
1.82
Confidence
High
Victory for Nuno Borges
Nuno Borges is the favorite with odds of 1.75, and although he has only 40% overall wins, he has better recent form and higher ranking. Arnaldi has a low overall win rate (30%) and has lost 70% of his matches. Borges' form is more reliable.
1.77
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 3 7 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 55% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 33% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 40% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 83% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 20% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 28% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 42% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 80% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 80% |
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