Cristian Garin vs Jan Choinski — Prediction
05/05/2026
#6
Cristian Garin
10:00
Today
#122
Jan Choinski
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X
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2
Match Preview
Cristian Garin faces Jan Choinski in the first round of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia qualifications in Rome. Garin is the favorite with odds of 1.38, while Choinski is the underdog at 2.87. Garin has a 50% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to Choinski's 40%. Garin tends to play 3-set matches (70% outside Grand Slams), while Choinski is more balanced (50% in 2 sets, 50% in 3 sets).
Our predictions
Cristian Garin to win
Garin is the favorite with odds of 1.38, reflecting his seeded status and experience on clay. He has a 60% win rate when favored (6/10) and has won 50% of his recent matches. Choinski, as an underdog, has only a 30% win rate in this role and has lost 60% of his recent matches. The clay surface and qualification context favor Garin.
1.39
Confidence
High (65 %)
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Garin has played 70% of his matches in 3 sets outside Grand Slams, and Choinski 50%. Additionally, Garin has lost at least one set in 70% of his matches as a favorite, suggesting the match could go to three sets. The odds of 2.87 for over 2.5 sets are attractive given Garin's tendency to play tight matches.
2.33
Confidence
High (65 %)
Under 22.5 games in the match
Although the match could go to three sets, both players tend to play tight sets. Garin has a 60% win rate when favored, and Choinski has lost 60% of his recent matches. If Garin wins in two sets, the total games could be under 22.5. However, Garin's tendency to drop sets makes this bet less certain, hence medium confidence.
1.75
Confidence
Medium (50 %)
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 25% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 75% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 25% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 75% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 83% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 100% |
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