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Novak Djokovic - Aleksandar Kovacevic: our prediction

09/03/2026•19:10

Novak Djokovic

2:1

6•4

1•6

6•4

Finished

#31

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Novak Djokovic, the clear favorite, faces American Aleksandar Kovacevic in the first round of the Indian Wells Masters. The gap in level and experience is immense. Djokovic, looking for rhythm, should control the match, but Kovacevic might try to put up some resistance.

Our Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic predictions

Novak Djokovic to Win

Djokovic is the absolute favorite (odds 1.09). He shows solid form (80% wins in last 10 matches) and remarkable efficiency as a favorite (87.5% wins with odds between 1.0 and 1.2). Against Kovacevic, who is far less experienced and ranked, the Serbian's technical and mental superiority should be decisive. No known injury alerts.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

The match is best of 3 sets. Djokovic's 'en2set' statistics (60% as favorite) and his overall form (70% of his last 10 matches outside Grand Slams ended in 2 sets) point to a victory in two sets. Kovacevic has a 60% rate of winning at least one set as an outsider, but against a player of Djokovic's stature, this task seems very difficult, especially at a Masters 1000.

1.31

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

Djokovic tends to finish his matches quickly when he is a heavy favorite. His 'en2set' statistics (matches in 2 sets outside Grand Slams) show a 60% success rate as a favorite. A 6-3, 6-4 (20 games) or 6-2, 6-4 (18 games) scenario is likely. Kovacevic, although capable of winning games on his serve, is likely to struggle to prolong sets against Djokovic's consistency.

1.64

Confidence

High

Market signals on Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

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Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Novak Djokovic vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Novak Djokovic	Aleksandar Kovacevic
Win \| Lose	8 2	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	100%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	55%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	44%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	87%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	75%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%