Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Novak Djokovic: our prediction

01/02/2026•09:45

Carlos Alcaraz

3:1

2•6

6•2

6•3

7•5

Finished

Novak Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Preview — Australian Open ATP

Australian Open 2026 final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. A generational clash between the young Spanish prodigy in excellent form (9 wins in last 10 matches) and the experienced, still formidable Serbian veteran (8 wins out of 10). Statistics suggest a tight, potentially long match with a high probability of over 3.5 sets.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic predictions

Over 3.5 sets in the match

Historical statistics in Grand Slam tournaments for both players indicate a strong tendency for long matches. Alcaraz finished 80% of his recent Grand Slam matches in 3 sets, but against an opponent of Djokovic's quality, the probability of a 4 or 5-set match increases significantly. Djokovic finished 40% of his recent Grand Slam matches in 4 sets or more. The rivalry and balanced level make a short match unlikely.

1.54

Confidence

High

Victory of Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz shows slightly superior form in his last 10 matches (90% win rate vs. 80% for Djokovic). His win statistic as a favorite is impeccable (100% for odds between 1.0 and 1.2). Although Djokovic remains one of the greatest players in history, Alcaraz's recent momentum and youthful energy could make the difference in a very tight match. No injury information was found for either player.

1.31

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Novak Djokovic
Win \| Lose	9 1	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	90%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	10%	40%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	55%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	44%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	85%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	66%