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Novak Djokovic - Jack Draper: our prediction

12/03/2026•02:10

Novak Djokovic

1:2

6•4

4•6

6•7

Finished

#15

Jack Draper

Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Novak Djokovic, the favorite and a tennis legend, faces the young and talented Jack Draper at the BNP Paribas Open. Djokovic, with his experience and consistency, is the logical favorite, but Draper has shown he can cause upsets. The match could be tighter than the odds suggest, with the potential for contested sets.

Our Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper predictions

Novak Djokovic to Win

Novak Djokovic is the clear favorite (odds 1.72). His statistics are solid: 80% win rate in the last 10 matches and 90% win rate when favorite. Against a less experienced opponent like Draper, his consistency and mentality should make the difference. No known injury concerns.

1.66

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a potentially 3-set match (over 2.5 sets) increases the likelihood of a high game count. Even in a 2-0 win for Djokovic, if Draper manages to make the sets tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4), the total games could exceed 22.5. The combination of Djokovic's solidity and Draper's offensive ability could lead to tight sets.

1.72

Confidence

Medium

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Although Djokovic is favored, Draper has shown the ability to win sets against favorites (60% chance to win at least one set as an outsider). Djokovic loses at least one set as a favorite 40% of the time. Historical statistics for 3 sets (30% for Djokovic, 50% for Draper outside Majors) support this possibility. A 3-set match is plausible.

2.2

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Novak Djokovic	Jack Draper
Win \| Lose	8 2	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	70%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	80%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	80%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	66%