Rugby

Tennis

Gabriel Diallo - Felix Auger-Aliassime: our prediction

09/03/2026•02:15

#49

Gabriel Diallo

1:2

7•6

3•6

Finished

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Gabriel Diallo, the Canadian underdog, faces his compatriot and favorite Felix Auger-Aliassime at the BNP Paribas Open. Recent statistics show a clear superiority for Auger-Aliassime, especially as a favorite with low odds. The match should be quick, with a high probability of a straight-sets victory for the favorite.

Our Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime predictions

Victory for Felix Auger-Aliassime

Auger-Aliassime is the clear favorite (odds 1.27). His statistics as a favorite are excellent: 90% wins in his last 10 matches as a favorite, and 100% wins (5/5) when his odds are between 1.0 and 1.2. Diallo wins only 30% of his recent matches and only 20% as an underdog. The gap in level and consistency is significant.

1.24

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Auger-Aliassime wins 90% of his recent matches as a favorite in 2 sets (indicator 'en2set'). Diallo, as an underdog, loses 70% of his matches in 2 sets ('en2setoutsider' 70%). The probability of a 3-set match is low (10% for Auger-Aliassime, 30% for Diallo). The dynamics suggest a quick match.

1.47

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

With a high probability of a 2-set match (6-4, 6-3, or similar scores), the total number of games should stay under 22.5. Auger-Aliassime, as a strong favorite, tends to win his sets decisively. Diallo has a low probability (20%) of winning a set, which would limit the match's length.

1.83

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Gabriel Diallo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Gabriel Diallo	Felix Auger-Aliassime
Win \| Lose	3 7	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	70%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	70%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	60%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	40%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	75%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	75%