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Joao Fonseca - Gabriel Diallo: our prediction

06/04/2026•16:25

#26

Joao Fonseca

2:0

6•2

6•3

Finished

#49

Gabriel Diallo

Joao Fonseca vs Gabriel Diallo Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Joao Fonseca, the clear favorite (odds 1.29), faces Gabriel Diallo (odds 3.47) at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Fonseca shows solid form (70% win rate as favorite) and a good ability to finish matches in two sets on clay. Diallo, the underdog, tends to extend matches, especially in Grand Slams. No known injury alerts.

Our Joao Fonseca vs Gabriel Diallo predictions

Joao Fonseca to Win

Fonseca is the clear favorite (odds 1.29) with an excellent 70% win rate as favorite in his last 10 matches. On clay (non-Grand Slam), he wins 60% of his matches in 2 sets as favorite. Diallo wins only 30% of his recent matches and 20% as an underdog. The difference in level and confidence should be decisive.

1.24

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games

Even if Fonseca can win in two sets, his statistics show he often loses a set (60% as favorite). Diallo, as an underdog, wins a set 60% of the time. A tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games) or a three-set match would easily exceed the 22.5 game mark. Diallo's tendency to play long matches, especially in Grand Slams (70% of matches in 4 or more sets as favorite), suggests potential resistance.

2.2

Confidence

Medium

Under 2.5 Sets

As a favorite on clay (non-Grand Slam), Fonseca finishes his matches in 2 sets 60% of the time. Diallo, as an underdog, loses in 2 sets 60% of the time. However, Fonseca also loses a set as favorite 60% of the time, and Diallo wins a set as underdog 60% of the time. The balance leans slightly towards a two-set match, but the risk of a set for Diallo exists.

1.43

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Joao Fonseca vs Gabriel Diallo

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Joao Fonseca vs Gabriel Diallo Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Joao Fonseca	Gabriel Diallo
Win \| Lose	5 5	3 7
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	70%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	55%	25%
% of match in 4 sets or more	44%	75%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	25%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	75%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	40%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	33%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	33%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	25%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	25%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%