Rugby

Tennis

Joao Fonseca - Rafael Jodar: our prediction

26/04/2026•22:45

#25

Joao Fonseca

1:2

6•7

6•4

1•6

Finished

#12

Rafael Jodar

Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Preview — Madrid Open

Joao Fonseca faces Rafael Jodar at the Madrid Open. Fonseca is the underdog with odds of 2.05, while Jodar is the favorite at 1.76. Jodar has a 90% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 60% for Fonseca. Jodar is particularly strong as a favorite, with 90% wins, and often wins in 2 sets (70% of his matches). Fonseca has shown resilience as an underdog, winning at least one set in 70% of his matches.

Our Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar predictions

Victory for Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar is the favorite with odds of 1.76 and a 90% win rate in his last 10 matches. He is particularly dominant as a favorite (90% wins) and has an excellent record in 2 sets (70%). Fonseca, while competitive, has a lower win rate (60%) and performs less well as an underdog (30% wins). Jodar has the psychological and statistical advantage.

1.7

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Jodar wins 70% of his matches in 2 sets, and Fonseca 60% in 2 sets as an underdog. Both players have a strong tendency to finish matches in 2 sets. The percentage of matches in 3 sets is low (30% for Jodar, 40% for Fonseca). This bet is consistent with under 22.5 games, as a 2-set match typically implies fewer than 22.5 games.

1.62

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Jodar tends to win in 2 sets (70% of his matches), limiting the total number of games. Fonseca, while he can take a set, has a 60% win rate in 2 sets as an underdog. Both players have a history of tight matches but often in 2 sets. The probability of a 3-set match is lower, making under 22.5 games likely.

1.93

Confidence

High

Market signals on Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Joao Fonseca	Rafael Jodar
Win \| Lose	6 4	9 1
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	55%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	44%	100%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	100%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	83%