Rugby

Tennis

Joao Fonseca - Ben Shelton: our prediction

17/04/2026•15:40

#26

Joao Fonseca

1:2

3•6

6•3

3•6

Finished

Ben Shelton

Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Preview — BMW Open

Joao Fonseca, the betting favorite, faces Ben Shelton at the BMW Open. Recent statistics show Shelton tends to play tight three-set matches outside the Majors, while Fonseca is more effective at closing out matches in two sets. No injuries reported.

Our Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton predictions

Joao Fonseca to Win

Fonseca is the clear favorite (odds 1.49). His statistics as a favorite are solid (80% win rate). He is more effective at closing in two sets (60%) than Shelton (20%) in non-Major tournaments, matching this match's format.

1.44

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Ben Shelton has a strong tendency to play three-set matches outside the Majors (80% of his last 10 matches). Even as a favorite, Fonseca loses at least one set 50% of the time. The probability of a three-set match is high.

2.3

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a three-set match increases the likelihood of exceeding 22.5 games. Shelton's statistics (80% three-set matches) and Fonseca's tendency to lose sets as a favorite support this scenario. However, if Fonseca dominates in two tight sets, the total could be just under.

1.72

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Joao Fonseca	Ben Shelton
Win \| Lose	7 3	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	30%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	55%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	44%	30%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	75%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	83%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	100%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%