Rugby

Tennis

Joao Fonseca - Marin Cilic: our prediction

24/04/2026•21:00

#26

Joao Fonseca

0:0

Finished

Marin Cilic

Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Preview — Madrid Open

Joao Fonseca, a young Brazilian prospect, faces Marin Cilic, a former Grand Slam champion, in the first round of the Madrid Open. Fonseca is favored with odds of 1.24, while Cilic is the underdog at 4.00. Fonseca has won 60% of his recent matches, but Cilic has experience and a fast surface that could favor him.

Our Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic predictions

Victory of Joao Fonseca

Fonseca is favored with odds of 1.24 and has an overall win rate of 60%. As a favorite, he wins 80% of his matches. Cilic, despite his experience, has a win rate of only 40% and has not won as an underdog against favorites with odds between 1.0 and 1.2.

1.25

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Fonseca finishes 50% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and Cilic 70% in 2 sets. With Fonseca favored and Cilic struggling to win sets, it is likely the match ends in 2 sets, so under 2.5 sets.

1.44

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Fonseca, as a favorite, finishes 50% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets. Cilic, as a favorite, finishes 90% of his matches in 2 sets. Given that Fonseca is the favorite and Cilic struggles to win sets as an underdog (only 50% of his matches as an underdog win at least one set), the match could be relatively short, with under 22.5 games.

1.8

Confidence

High

Market signals on Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Joao Fonseca vs Marin Cilic Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Joao Fonseca	Marin Cilic
Win \| Lose	6 4	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	55%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	44%	40%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	70%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	100%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	33%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%