Rugby

Tennis

Alex Barrena - Juan Pablo Varillas: our prediction

26/03/2026•22:20

#190

Alex Barrena

2:1

2•6

6•2

6•3

Finished

#61

Juan Pablo Varillas

Alex Barrena vs Juan Pablo Varillas Preview — Sao Paulo

First-round match in Sao Paulo between Alex Barrena and Juan Pablo Varillas. Varillas is the slight favorite according to the odds. Both players show similar recent form (5 wins, 5 losses in the last 10 matches). Statistics suggest a potentially tight match, with a tendency for Barrena to win in two sets when favored.

Our Alex Barrena vs Juan Pablo Varillas predictions

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Statistics from the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches show Barrena wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets when favored, and Varillas 70%. Overall, Barrena has 60% of matches in 2 sets, Varillas 70%. The probability of a two-set match (2-0 or 0-2 victory) is high.

1.56

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

The high probability of a two-set match (under 2.5 sets) mechanically reduces the total number of games. A two-set match often ends with a total game count below 23, especially if one of the sets is relatively one-sided. The statistical tendency for a two-set match supports this bet.

1.82

Confidence

Medium

Victory for Juan Pablo Varillas

Varillas is designated as the favorite by the bookmakers (odds 1.78 vs. 1.91). Although their recent form is identical (5W/5L), Varillas has a slightly better overall performance as a favorite (50% wins vs. 70% for Barrena, but on a different sample). No injury information was found for either player.

1.73

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alex Barrena vs Juan Pablo Varillas

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alex Barrena vs Juan Pablo Varillas Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alex Barrena	Juan Pablo Varillas
Win \| Lose	5 5	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	100%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	44%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	55%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	16%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	20%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%