Rugby

Tennis

Matias Soto - Stefano Napolitano: our prediction

08/04/2026•19:10

#223

Matias Soto

0:2

1•6

6•7

Finished

#164

Stefano Napolitano

Matias Soto vs Stefano Napolitano Preview — Mexico City

Stefano Napolitano, the clear favorite (odds 1.44), faces Matias Soto in Mexico City. Napolitano shows solid form (6W/4L) and excellent efficiency as a favorite. Soto, the underdog (odds 2.57), has positive recent form (8W/2L) but struggles against favorites of this level. The match is likely to be decided in two sets.

Our Matias Soto vs Stefano Napolitano predictions

Stefano Napolitano to Win

Napolitano is the designated favorite (odds 1.44) with solid form (6W/4L). His statistics as a favorite are excellent (70% win rate). Against Soto, who has a low win rate against favorites with odds of 1.21-1.5 (0%), the odds logic and recent form strongly favor him.

1.52

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets in the Match

Player statistics in non-Grand Slam tournaments indicate a high probability of a two-set match. Napolitano wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets as a favorite, and Soto loses 70% of his in 2 sets as an underdog. The match dynamics and odds level suggest a clear victory for the favorite.

1.52

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a two-set match (Under 2.5) makes this bet consistent. If Napolitano dominates as expected (e.g., 6-3, 6-4), the total games would be 19. Both players' two-set win statistics support this scenario, although a tight set could push it over the limit.

1.8

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Matias Soto vs Stefano Napolitano

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Matias Soto vs Stefano Napolitano Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Matias Soto	Stefano Napolitano
Win \| Lose	8 2	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	28%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%