Rugby

Tennis

Matias Soto - Gonzalo Bueno: our prediction

17/04/2026•02:35

#223

Matias Soto

2:0

6•0

2•0

Finished

#183

Gonzalo Bueno

Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Bueno Preview — Santa Cruz

Gonzalo Bueno, the favorite with odds of 1.70, faces Matias Soto in an ATP match on clay. Soto shows solid form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) but Bueno is slightly favored by the bookmakers. No injuries reported. The match could be tight, with a tendency for Soto to win in two sets and a propensity for Bueno to lose a set even as the favorite.

Our Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Bueno predictions

Gonzalo Bueno to Win

Bueno is designated as the favorite (odds 1.70). Although Soto has better recent form (80% vs 70% wins), Bueno has a lower odds, indicating a higher perceived probability of winning. As a favorite, Bueno wins 70% of the time. No injuries disrupt this dynamic.

1.75

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Statistics suggest a potentially long match. Soto wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets, but Bueno, as a favorite, loses at least one set 60% of the time. Furthermore, 50% of Bueno's non-Major matches go to 3 sets. The combination of Soto's solid form and Bueno's tendency to lose sets as a favorite makes a three-set match plausible.

2.3

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) significantly increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-5) reaches 24 games. Given the expected competitiveness and Bueno's tendency to play tight sets as a favorite (60% loss of a set), the total games should exceed 22.5.

1.97

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Bueno

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Bueno Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Matias Soto	Gonzalo Bueno
Win \| Lose	8 2	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	60%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	75%